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What is the probability that an EQ will occur in the New Madrid Fault Zone?

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What is the probability that an EQ will occur in the New Madrid Fault Zone?

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Seismologists Arch Johnston and Susan Nava calculated in 1985 that a moderate magnitude New Madrid zone earthquake has a 100-year recurrence interval. It has been nearly 100 years since the 1895 earthquake, and no large quake has occurred. Johnston and Nava’s study would indicate the statistical probability is high that another large earthquake could occur in the region.

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