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What is the probability of sighting a new crescent moon?

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What is the probability of sighting a new crescent moon?

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The sighting of the crescent moon is a dynamic rather than a static event. That is to say, the percentage of visibility increases with time. At the same time, the revolution of the moon around the earth combined with the earths revolution around the sun causes the new moon sighting to move from east to west. As a result, after the first possible sighting of the crescent, it becomes more visible as the minutes and hours pass. Because of this phenomenon, once the crescent is visible in the Holy Land, its visibility is increased here in the land of the Great Captivity. Barring any poor weather conditions, as previously stated, the apparent motion from east to west in time and space causes a greater percentage of the crescent to be visible. Consequently, it is possible that there could be no sighting in the Land but the crescent could be sighted here. It is even possible to have no sighting on the east coast but have a sighting on the west coast. It is precisely because of these dynamics t

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