What is the probability of a tornado hitting a junk yard and creating a new car?
Straw man — that’s not how evolution actually works…: 1.) Evolution is not all-or-nothing; it’s a process of small, incremental steps. 2.) Life as we currently know it is an ACCUMULATION of small changes over successive generations from earlier, simpler, self-replicating molecules. 3.) Life has no fixed plan or ultimate outcome in mind — it’s a blind, unguided process. In order to make your analogy accurate, you need to make the following changes to it: 1.) Once the tornado blows through, you comb through the debris and find any occasion where two parts collided together in a way that looks useful some how. Then you make lots of duplicate copies of those pairings, just like the self-replicating molecules make copies of themselves. 2.) You then have to repeat this process a few billion times, and keep making duplicates of each incidental pairing of junk pieces. 3.) What you look for after the billionth tornado has passed through is not a new car per se, but SOME sort of apparatus th
Assuming you are trying to make the usual half-assed idiot level comparison to abiogenesis, let’s make that sensible shall we Let’s imagine not just one junkyard but trillions upon trillions of them covering the entire world. Amino acids only had to combine into self-replicating cells ONCE – but they covered most of the earth and are, obviously, incredibly tiny. Now let’s imagine not one whirlwind but approximately 1 billion years worth of whirlwinds every second. Life did not arise until more than 1 billion years had passed on earth, and every instant was a possibility for those amino acids to combine. Now let’s imagine that the whirlwind doesn’t have to build a car but can put a tire and a bolt together by chance and have them stay together until an axle happens to blow against them, then another bolt and a hubcap etc etc ad nauseam.. Because that’s how amino acids combine. It may take quite a few to build a self-replicating cell, but any combination that does not may still remain co
