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What is the Percent Probability of Drilling Success?

April 26, 2017Drilling percent probability success

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What is the Percent Probability of Drilling Success?

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We have a unique process where we can estimate the probability of drilling success for a location based on how the MET value for the area has corresponded to previous drilling results. We continually monitor the drilling activity by industry in the areas we have surveyed. When a well is reported, we determine the MET values for the four samples around the site. We now have over 700 wells in our database which allows us to develop a correlation of drilling success to MET survey values. Using this historical correlation, we can develop %PS contour maps that represent the expected probability of success for the surveyed areas. When we have recommended an exploratory well site based on MET data, 14 of 18 wells were completed (77%) while industry overall completed 41%.