What is the most likely occurrence from the Wabash Valley fault both in intensity, probability and location and how is it likely to affect infrastructure?
This is an area of some controversy and little scientific data. Scientists know there were large prehistoric earthquakes in southern Illinois and Indiana. The size and recurrence of these earthquakes needs to be investigated more thoroughly. Estimates in the National Seismic Hazard maps are based on projecting the frequency of historical small earthquakes up to larger ones. These estimates are in reasonable agreement with earlier estimates based primarily on prehistoric liquefaction observations, but more investigation needs to be done.
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