What is the Market Expecting for August Non-Farm Payrolls?
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls: -75k Forecast, -51k Previous Unemployment Rate: 5.7% Forecast, 5.7% Previous Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -35k Forecast, -35k Previous Average Hourly Earnings: 3.4% Forecast, 3.4% Previous Average Weekly Hours: 33.6 Forecast, 33.6 Previous In order to determine the strength of non-farm payrolls, we typically look at 10 pieces of data that we call the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls. Seven out of the ten releases point to greater job losses, putting the odds in favor of a weak non-farm payrolls reading in line with expectations. More specifically: The Negatives • ISM Services Employment Signals Contraction for the Fourth Consecutive Month • ISM Manufacturing Employment Below 50 During 9 of the Past 10 Months • ADP Employment Falls by 33K Vs. Improvement of 1K Last Month • Work Stoppages Increase as Striking Workers Amount to 4.2K • Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average Holds Near 5-Year High • Continuing Claims Edge Toward November 2003
