What is the Margin of Error for an Exit Poll?
Exit Polls are surveys. As in all surveys, there is a margin of error due to sampling. The margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is about +/- 3% for a typical characteristic from the national Exit Poll and +/-4% for a typical state Exit Poll. Characteristics that are more concentrated in a few polling places, such as race, have larger sampling errors. Other non sampling factors may increase the total error.
