What is the likely impact of El Nino and La Nina on the monsoon this year?
El Nino is the term used to describe anomalous warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean which occurs over a quasi-periodic cycle of 3-6 years, while La Nina refers to anomalous cooling. El Nino and La Nina are known to impact global climatic patterns. Though the El Nino of 2002-2003 is now considered to be over, global forecast models differ widely on whether the remainder of 2003 will see a rapid development of La Nina or neutral conditions will prevail. Q: To what extent global warming affects monsoon? A: There is no direct relation between global warming and monsoon. Nor are there any data to suggest that global warming has resulted in any change in the rainfall pattern in the country or the quantum of rainfall has increased. Research on this aspect is still on. Q: The IMD had recently added new parameters to forecast monsoon. How do you rate the new parameters? A: Statistical monsoon prediction models are based upon the strong correlations of the monsoon rainfall with certain antece
