What is the future birthrate and population of the world likely to be?
The UN Population Division makes three versions of each of its projections: low, medium, and high. In recent history, the low projections have usually been correct because the UN prefers to overstate population growth. But I will use the medium projections so that I cannot be accused of exaggerating based on my perspective. The UNPD projects that world fertility rate will drop to 2.05 children per woman by 2050. That means human beings will cease to have enough children to reproduce themselves. In other words, the continued existence of the human race will be threatened. “Fertility levels in the 44 developed countries, which account for 19 per cent of the world population, are currently very low,” says the UNPD’s 2004 World Population Prospects report. “All except Albania have fertility below replacement level and 15, mostly located in Southern and Eastern Europe, have reached levels of fertility unprecedented in human history (below 1.3 children per woman). Since 1990-1995, fertility
