What is the difference between the CASE Management System and Monte Carlo?
Monte Carlo Analysis randomly selects thousands of samples relative to your client’s timeline. Statistically, based on a bell curve, Monte Carlo tries to predict a future unknown outcome of portfolio performance. In contrast, the BetaVest CASE Management System, uses historical rolling period analysis. Using historical data, BetaVest places your client in history and allows them to live through every relative time period in sequential order. To further illustrate, most Monte Carlo simulators available on a commercial level create mean variance distributions that create a normal bell curve distribution of returns where 67% of annual returns used to create Monte Carlo sequences fall within one standard deviation of the mean (average return). Therefore, there is an tendency to inadequately represent the actual effects of tail end returns of the normal distribution. Although there is less probability of tail end returns occurring on a normal distribution, Monte Carlo does not create a fair
