What is the difference between short-term projections and long-term projections? Which projection is better?
• Short-term projections use one unit of 5-year in-out migration data, which in this case is the 1995-2000 in-out migration. Long-term projections, on the other hand, use the average of 3 units of migration data: 1985-1990; 1990-1995 (estimates); and 1995-2000 (actual) in-out migration. Which one is more suitable depends on the assumption of in-out migration trends. In general, if a county has only mild fluctuations in migrations in the last two decades, then the average long-term migration will be the preferred measure of the future migrations in the county. However, if steady trends or stable rates of migration are observed during the last three or four migration periods, then the most current migrations (short term migrations) should predict future migrations better. West Virginia has both types of counties.
