What is the difference between an astronomical forecast for Martinez stage and the Martinez stage forecast by the real-time scripts?
Stage at Martinez is the downstream model boundary, and can not have missing values. A hybrid vector autoregressive and astronomical model is used to forecast and fill-in missing stage data at Martinez for real-time simulations. The theory behind this model is completely described in Chapter 8 of the Delta Modeling Section 2000 Annual Report. A pure astronomical model can be used to estimate stage at Martinez. While there will not be any significant differences between the phase of the observed tide at Martinez and the phase of the astronomical based forecast, the difference in stage between the two values can be several tenths of a foot. The hybrid vector autoregressive and astronomical model essentially uses only recent historical stage data from the NOAA station in San Francisco at the Golden Gate and the DWR data from Martinez and Mallard Island. The model then computes the difference between each of these recently observed stage time series and subtracts out the astronomical predi
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