What is the Current Market Cycle Analysis shown in the Members Area?
The ‘Current Market Cycle Analysis’ indicates the most recent peak or bottom in our ‘Weighted Composite Index’, and calculates date ranges when (statistically) one might expect the lagging equity markets to reach their corresponding peak or bottom. Shown are a date range calculated from a single standard deviation from the ‘Weighted Composite Index”s mean lead time over the markets (representing a greater than 68% probability), and another range calculated to be two standard deviations from the mean lead time (an over 95% probability of capturing the next market peak or bottom). Additionally, another percentile is presented which indicates the probability that the next market peak or bottom has arrived or has already passed. This analysis is available to help our Members fully understand the most recent peak or bottom of our ‘Weighted Composite Index’ and the risk implications of the historical lag time before subsequent movements in the equity markets. See a sample Consumer Metrics I
