What is the chance of an extinction level event occurring in the next five years?
It’s hard to say. There have been roughly six natural major extinction events in the past 500 million years. That means that in five years, the chances of another major extinction event would be about six millionths of one percent, or 0.00000006. However, not all those six extinction events were necessarily caused by meteor impacts. In addition, they seem to be gradually decreasing in frequency, meaning that the chances of one happening in the near future are much lower. Furthermore, there are a number of artificial effects which change the probability. Many scientists (along with plenty of eco-freaks) say that our current era is undergoing another extinction event called the Holocene Extinction Event, the difference being that this one is being caused by us. I’m assuming, however, that you’re only talking about meteor impacts. In that case, you also have to take into account the fact that we are currently tracking over 80% of the NEOs (Near Earth Objects) large enough to cause a major
