What is the best predictor of future type 2 diabetes?
, , , . Division of Diabetes, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas 78229, USA. albarado@uthscsa.edu OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess insulin secretion/insulin resistance index in predicting the risk for future type 2 diabetes RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 1,551 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study received an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with measurement of plasma glucose and insulin concentrations at 0, 30, 60, and 120 min at baseline and after 7-8 years of follow-up. Insulin secretion/insulin resistance index was calculated as the product of Matsuda index and DeltaI(0-30)/DeltaG(0-30) or DeltaI(0-120)/DeltaG(0-120). The discriminatory power of various prediction models for development of type 2 diabetes was tested with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Insulin secretion/insulin resistance index (0- to 30- and 0- to 120-min time periods) had the greatest areas under the ROC
