What is Predicted Reliability?
The Predicted Reliability, also called New Car Prediction, forecasts how well a new model that is currently on sale is likely to hold up based on its recent history. For this Rating, we average a model’s Used Car Verdict for the newest three years, provided the vehicle did not change significantly in that time and hasn’t been redesigned for the upcoming model year. Over the years, we have found that several years of data are a better predictor than the most recent model year alone. One or two years of data may be used if the model was redesigned within that three-year time frame, or if there were insufficient data for some years. Sometimes, we will make a prediction for a brand-new or redesigned model if the previous generation and/or the manufacturer has a track record of consistently outstanding (above average) reliability. Of course, this is only a prediction, and these scores are not a guarantee of the reliability of any individual car. However, buying a car that has an above-avera
The Predicted Reliability, also called New Car Prediction, forecasts how well a new model that is currently on sale is likely to hold up based on its recent history. For this Rating, we average a model’s Used Car Verdict for the newest three years, provided the vehicle did not change significantly in that time and hasn’t been redesigned for the upcoming model year. Over the years, we have found that several years of data are a better predictor than the most recent model year alone. One or two years of data may be used if the model was redesigned within that three-year time frame, or if there were insufficient data for some years. Sometimes, we will make a prediction for a newly redesigned model if the previous generation has a track record of consistently outstanding (above average) reliability. Of course, this is only a prediction, and these scores are not a guarantee of the reliability of any individual car. However, buying a car that has an above-average score for Predicted Reliabil
