What is our accuracy of landfall prediction?
Probability of correct forecast decreases with increasing forecast validity period. Mean forecast errors for 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours are about 50, 140, 300 and 500 km respectively, which are comparable to corresponding figures of other centres like National Hurricane Centre, Miami, which monitor Atlantic Hurricanes; Typhoon Warning Centre, Tokyo, which monitors Typhoons of Northwest Pacific etc.
