What is mass balance? Can we predict mass balance from climate data?
Crucial to the survival of a glacier is its mass balance, the difference between accumulation and ablation (melting and sublimation). Climate change may cause variations in both temperature and snowfall, causing changes in mass balance. Changes in mass balance control a glacier’s long term behavior. It is the most sensitive climate indicator on a glacier. A glacier with a sustained negative balance is out of equilibrium and will retreat. A glacier with a sustained positive balance is out of equilibrium and will advance. Annual balance is the most sensitive annual glacier climate indicator. This sensitivity to climate indicates that climate variables should be useful in predicting mass balance. Several models have been developed for the region, based on data from just a single glacier, South Cascade Glacier. The models have tended to have substantial area, particularly in years with high positive or negative annual balances. In this case with data from ten glaciers, we have a chance to
