What is driving the improvement in net exports ex-oil?
First, recall the while the preliminary announcement of GDP did not change the overall GDP growth rate recorded in 2007Q4, it did change the composition of output growth. In particular, the net exports contribution expanded; taking out net exports (in a mechanistic fashion, admittedly), GDP growth would have been essentially zero. More interesting to me is the revision in the estimates going from the advance to preliminary release. Exports’ contribution was revised slightly up, while imports positive contribution was revised substantially up, from a slight negative to a positive. Figure 1: Real GDP growth q/q SAAR (blue bars), export contribution (red) according to January 30 release (line) and February 28 (line+box), import contribution (teal), according to January 30 release (line) and February 28 (line+box). Source: BEA, NIPA releases of 30 January and 28 February. Second, while we see undeniable improvement in net exports/GDP and the ex-oil net exports/GDP ratios, one question is h
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