What is current conventional wisdom on the Afghan war?
A1: The short answer? Either we are “losing,” or we “won” by some definition a while ago. How you view the issue depends on your answers to four questions. First, how do you see the contemporary terrorist problem? Is it a “war” with a beginning and an end? Or, is it a persistent and violent “management” challenge? Second, how did you define the Afghan mission circa October 2001—disruptive and punitive or transformational? The former assumes we will be in the business of counterterrorist interventions for the foreseeable future. The latter assumes that wholesale Afghan transformation would irrevocably impact terrorism worldwide. Third, relative to your 2001 view, where do you think we are now vis-à-vis Afghanistan, al Qaeda, and the Taliban? Transformed enough (or not)? Disrupted and punished enough (or not)? Finally, fourth, where does a modestly functioning Afghanistan (which all agree is still a distant and uncertain prospect) fit in the stratum of U.S. interests—vital, important, or
