What is Availability Bias?
Availability bias is a human cognitive bias that causes us to overestimate probabilities of events associated with memorable or vivid occurrences. Because memorable events are further magnified by coverage in the media, the bias is compounded on the society level. Two prominent examples would be estimations of the probability of plane accidents, and the abduction of children. Both events are quite rare, but the vast majority of the population wildly overestimates their probability, and behaves accordingly. They are falling prey to the availability bias. In reality, you’re much more likely to die from an auto accident than a plane accident, and your child is more likely to die in an accident than get abducted. But the majority thinks the inverse, because the less likely events are more “available” – more memorable. If you look at the literature or even just the interactions of daily life, you will find thousands of examples of availability bias in action. Availability bias is at the roo
We often have to estimate the likelihood of an event in our everyday lives. For example, when is the next bus likely to come? Is it likely to rain today? We often rely on our recent experiences the fastest available source of information – to estimate the probability of the event. We do not sift through years of records to arrive at a conclusion. It would be too much trouble and for the most part, the available information is good enough. The reason for this tendency is easy to understand. Quick decision making was critical for the survival of our early ancestors. Earlier humans had to often rely on their experiences in making intelligent guesses. Today when it comes to stock picking, however, the availability bias can lead to irrational behavior if recent experiences happen to be misleading indicators of future. Examples • Health issues: We often assess medical risks, such as heart attack, among a particular set of people by thinking of such occurrences among our acquaintances. Simila
