What is a seasonally adjusted estimate?
Seasonal adjustment removes the change in employment that is due to normal seasonal hiring or layoffs, thus leaving an over-the-month change that reflects only employment changes due to trend and irregular movements. Seasonally adjusted estimates of employment and other series are generated using the X-12 ARIMA program developed by the United States Census Bureau. This program adjusts estimates for fluctuations that occur on a regular basis within a year. For example, employment in retail trade rises prior to the Christmas holiday season and then falls following the holiday. Annual averages, however, are computed using data that are not seasonally adjusted.
