What information do we use from global model projections when we downscale to project changes in Atlantic tropical storm activity?
A point of confusion we have encountered among some colleagues regards the use that we make of the global climate model projections. We do not use the tropical “weather” generated by the global models. We only use the change in the seasonal mean state of the atmosphere, and the change in sea surface temperatures, from the global model projections for the 21st century. We believe that these long-term seasonal mean changes are likely to be the most reliable component of the global projections. We keep the same “weather” in the boundary and large-scale interior forcing as in our control simulations. The reduction in storm activity that we see in our model is solely a response to the changes in seasonal mean climate predicted by the global models.
Related Questions
- What information do we use from global model projections when we downscale to project changes in Atlantic tropical storm activity?
- How sensitive is the hurricane response to different global model projections of large-scale changes over the Atlantic?
- Are we confident in the projections by global models of future changes in moist stability and shear over the Atlantic?
