What, in ICIMODs view, is the most cautious interpretation of the Himalayan glacier data?
We could agree that the vast majority of the HKH glaciers are retreating in terms of the snout position. It is also likely that there is ice mass loss in the glaciers below and altitude of 5,400 metres. But it is very difficult to conduct observations of glaciers in valleys. However, in northern Pakistan, glaciers are advancing in terms of the snout position and probably also in terms of ice mass. Winter precipitation in terms of snow has also intensified in northern Pakistan, probably because of climate change. Ultimately, there is no systematic data. How does ICIMOD view the current dispute over the IPCC prediction of 2035? About a year-and-a-half ago, I participated in a seminar where this figure was launched. And I said: “I would not bet a plate of Swiss chocolate that this figure is correct”. It has no solid basis, there are many factors at play. Take for instance the situation in northern Pakistan. Similarly there is more precipitation in the Tibetan plateau, probably because of
