What happens to the VAP after the next census?
Current VAP population estimates are based on estimates of population change closely followed by the population estimates division at the Census Bureau. When a new census is conducted at the end of the decade, these population estimates are inevitably out of line with the actual census. The Census Bureau adjusts the previous decade’s population estimates to conform with the new information revealed by the census. This is called the intercensal adjustment. Thus, we will not have a definitive estimate of the turnout rate in the 2004 election until the intercensal adjustment is released sometime after 2010. In the meantime, the population estimates serve as the best estimate of the voting-age population of the United States.
