What estimates have been made of the demand for critical care beds in the event of a flu pandemic?
Answer Although adults with uncomplicated influenza infection do not usually require hospital treatment, patients with worsening pre-existing medical conditions or suffering influenza-related complications such as bronchitis and pneumonia may need referral. Children with severe illness may also need referral for assessment for admission. Normally, there are some 159,600 beds (including day beds) in use across the UK, of which 3,900 are for patients requiring critical care. Generally, bed utilisation tends to be high (85 percent) and analysis suggests that it would be possible to release almost 33 percent of the total acute bed capacity – almost 40,000 in England – within five to ten days of any decision to cease elective work. Even with this additional capacity – and the implementation of other measures to improve utilisation and supplement availability – estimates suggest that existing hospital capacity may only meet 20 to 25 percent of the expected demand at the peak. We have therefo
