What Effect Has the Iraq War Had on the Middle East Strategic Landscape?
The conflict in Iraq has reverberated across the Middle East, affecting the balance of power between neighboring states, their internal political dynamics, how their publics view American credibility, and al-Qa’ida’s strategies and tactics. No matter how the internal situation in Iraq evolves, its effects on the broader region will be felt for decades, presenting new challenges and opportunities for U.S. policy. A better understanding of how regional states and nonstate actors have responded to the Iraq conflict will help prepare the United States to manage the war’s long-term consequences. A RAND Corporation research team sought to advance this understanding, conducting extensive fieldwork in the region and canvassing local media sources to inform the analysis. The study found that the war has (1) facilitated the rise of Iranian power in the region, but Iran faces more limits than is commonly acknowledged; (2) eroded local confidence in U.S. credibility and created new opportunities f
