What does “uncertainty” mean?
Uncertainty is defined by Webster s New American Dictionary, 1995 as “something that is not definitely known.” We are often faced with uncertainty and, where numbers are involved, we use various methods to evaluate it. An Everyday Example of Uncertainty: Traveling from one city to another. If a friend asked about the distance from Fort Collins to Denver, Colorado, you might answer “about 70 miles.” A better answer might include an indication of the uncertainty in your answer. The real distance depends on a variety of factors. Which parts of the cities are you traveling from and to? What route do you plan to take? Would you like to know the distance now, 20 years ago, or 20 years in the future? Would you like to know the distance as the crow flies? How accurate is the system you re using to measure the distance? Each of these questions adds to the uncertainty in the answer, and the result might be that the best answer is, “70 miles, with a range of 60-90 miles.” Similarly, most of the r
