What does the USDA say about corn in its crop report?
The U.S. government’s long-awaited crop report on Wednesday will give world grain traders their first indications from field surveys of expected final yields. With the United States providing more than a third of the world’s soybean exports and more than half of its corn exports, the U.S. Agriculture Department’s August report always grabs headlines. Until now, historical yield averages have been used to project likely harvests based on planted acreage. Still, this particular August report may be trickier to interpret than usual, because corn and soybeans remain immature for this time of year given rain-delayed spring plantings and the unseasonably cool growing season so far in the Midwest. States across the Corn Belt from Ohio to Nebraska have seen their chilliest July in more than 100 years. Ordinarily, that might mean big yields, especially for corn which pollinates in July. As of Aug. 2, only 14 percent of corn was “doughing” after pollination, versus the five-year average pace of
The U.S. government’s long-awaited crop report on Wednesday will give world grain traders their first indications from field surveys of expected final yields. With the United States providing more than a third of the world’s soybean exports and more than half of its corn exports, the U.S. Agriculture Department’s August report always grabs headlines. Until now, historical yield averages have been used to project likely harvests based on planted acreage. Still, this particular August report may be trickier to interpret than usual, because corn and soybeans remain immature for this time of year given rain-delayed spring plantings and the unseasonably cool growing season so far in the Midwest. States across the Corn Belt from Ohio to Nebraska have seen their chilliest July in more than 100 years. Ordinarily, that might mean big yields, especially for corn which pollinates in July. As of Aug. 2, only 14 percent of corn was “doughing” after pollination, versus the five-year average pace of
And USDA says the 2009 corn crop has what it takes to set a new record national average corn yield. USDA said in its Crop Comments: “The August 1 corn objective yield data indicate a record high number of ears per acre for the combined 10 objective yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin). Record high ear counts are forecast in all objective yield states except Illinois, Missouri and Wisconsin.” Record ear pops, but not a record yield. That suggests USDA is working with an average ear weight slightly above year-ago, but below 2004’s ear weights. Given the slow development of this year’s crop and the uncertainty for the end of the growing season, an increase from year-ago in ear weights seems to be a bit of a “risky assumption.” Sources: http://www.agweb.com/Blogs/BlogPost.aspx?
