What does the field of forecasting encompass?
The field of forecasting is concerned with approaches to determining what the future holds. It is also concerned with the proper presentation and use of forecasts. The terms forecast, prediction, projection, and prognosis are typically used interchangeably. Forecasts may be conditional. That is, if policy A is adopted then X is likely, but if B is adopted then Y is most likely to occur. Often forecasts are of future values of a time-series; for example, the number of babies that will be born in a year, or the likely demand for compact cars. Alternatively, forecasts can be of one-off events such as the outcome of a union-management dispute or the performance of a new recruit. Forecasts can also be of distributions such as the locations of terrorist attacks or the occurrence of heart attacks among different age cohorts. The field of forecasting includes the study and application of judgment as well as of quantitative (statistical) methods.
The field of forecasting is concerned with approaches to determining what the future holds. It is also concerned with the proper presentation and use of forecasts. The terms “forecast,” “prediction,” “projection,” and “prognosis” are typically used interchangeably. Forecasts may be conditional. That is, if policy A is adopted then X is likely, but if B is adopted then Y is most likely to occur. Often forecasts are of future values of a time-series; for example, the number of babies that will be born in a year, or the likely demand for compact cars. Alternatively, forecasts can be of one-off events such as the outcome of a union-management dispute or the performance of a new recruit. Forecasts can also be of distributions such as the locations of terrorist attacks or the occurrence of heart attacks among different age cohorts. The field of forecasting includes the study and application of judgment as well as of quantitative (statistical) methods. — D. Choosing the best method 1. What me
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