What does pandemic history tell us about a potential worst case scenario?
If the proportions of infection, illness and death are similar to the 1918 Flu Pandemic, the following pattern could emerge: • How long we have to prepare depends on how long before H5N1 mutates to spread human-to-human involving whole communities. That could be as soon as tomorrow or could take several years or more during which we could prepare. The deep survivor in me (who knows flu viruses mutate every year and require new vaccines) has a gut feeling we may have less time rather than more. • Once it goes human-to-human, the virus could spread worldwide in 3-6 months and reoccur in several “waves” over as long as 2 years (sometimes reoccurrence has happened a month after the first wave). Some of the human-to-human spread is “silent”. That is, the virus can spread to other people prior to the onset of the first person’s symptoms. (Symptoms usually appear 1-2 days following infection.) • Death may occur in all age groups including healthy young adults, not only in babies and the elder
