What do you think about the new Met Office study on a global warming worst case scenario?
The difference between the “worst case” scenario and “best case” scenario is time. In the worst case, 4 C warming happens in 40 years. In the best case 4 C warming takes more than 100 years. The weather is more important than climate for humans because global reserves of food amount to a few months supply. We don’t eat the average supply, we eat the last harvest. Therefore, the worst case is not defined by the climate, but the worst year within the new climate. In the pre-industrial climate, a very bad year leading to widespread crop failures might have a probability 2 standard deviations from the mean. In a 4C warmer climate, a very bad year may be less than 1 standard deviation from the mean.
