What do the individual, blue data points represent in the Super Tracker chart?
They represent the inferred popular vote outcome based on all polling (state and national) conducted on that particular day, as determined by analyzing the degree of movement between previous iterations of that poll. This is not the same as simply averaging the polls, although the Super Tracker usually resembles the Pollster.com and RealClearPolitics.com national averages closely. While the individual data points can be interesting to look at, we advise against overinterpreting them – there is a lot of noise in any one particular day’s data. Instead, the red trendline curve represents our best estimate of the current state of the election. For further background on the Super Tracker chart, please see Step 2 above.
