What do the Community Consensus/Probabilities mean?
The Community Consensus (Probability) is a rolled-up percentage of all the community’s bets on that prediction, meaning it represents the consensus of the community as to the probability of that event. We calculate this not only by the number of total bets, but more importantly, we calculate the amount of Standard Dollars wagered in total. For example, if there is a prediction stating, “Apple will sell 10 million iPhones by October 31, 2008” and the community odds are at 65%, that means the community believes there is a 65% chance that the event will occur by the date specified. Ultimately, the consensus is built off of all of the betting actions of the community, bets in favor and bets against.
