What Do Statistics Tell Us About Steroids?
” Written by BP’s Nate Silver, the chapter takes both a numerical and historical look at this hot-button topic. Read on to see what this chapter has to say about Baseball Between the Numbers’ cover boy. — In December of 2004, with the frenzy over the BALCO investigation at its peak, Alan Schwarz of the New York Times asked Baseball Prospectus to assist him with an analysis of Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi. The idea was to use BPs projection system, Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), to compare how Bonds and Giambi might have been expected to perform based on their statistics up through 2000, against what actually happened to their careers from that point forward. To retell the story: Entering the 2000 season, each of these players was at a career crossroads. Bonds would turn thirty-five that year–the age at which even great players can begin to struggle–and was coming off an injury-plagued season in 1999. Giambi was a slowfooted first baseman about
