What detection algorithm would be expected to detect a Cryptosporidium outbreak in Washington, DC, the earliest?
At a false alarm rate of four per year, the DSMA algorithm detects outbreaks of all sizes that are considered the earliest (Table 1). The AMOC curves can be inspected to determine how the false alarm rate affects relative algorithm performance. This report illustrates AMOC curves and a sensitivity versus timeliness plot for DSMA and ARIMA for an outbreak of size 1% (Figures 5 and 6); ARIMA detects the outbreak earlier than DSMA at smaller false alarm rates. What is the smallest Cryptosporidium outbreak that health departments can expect to be detected, given the available surveillance data in the city? The values (Table 2) for DSMA were interpolated to determine the smallest outbreak that is detected 2 weeks before public health response (using the North Battleford experience as a benchmark) at least 75% of the time. The smallest outbreak that is detectable is approximately 0.78% at a false alarm rate of four per year and 3.10% at a false alarm rate of two per year. • How early can hea
