What demand forecasts for Wales were used in the HLOS?
The HLOS used the nationally recognised methodology of the rail Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) for its passenger demand forecasts. The same forecasting methodology was used in the Wales Rail Planning Assessment (WRPA) and is being used in the Wales Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) currently under development. HLOS freight forecasts were taken from the Freight RUS, an industry study led by Network Rail. This study is also used to underpin the Wales RUS and it contributed to the Wales Rail Planning Assessment. Demand varies across the rail network by location and time. There are times when the demand can be readily accommodated on existing trains services and extra capacity is not required. The HLOS specification for capacity on 23 strategic routes and peak capacity for five major cities in England and Wales has therefore produced a range of figures. The HLOS seeks sufficient passenger capacity to accommodate an average 14.5% growth in annual passenger rail journeys across
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