What consequences could a deferral of the investigation and prosecution have?
A deferral could endanger the establishment of lasting peace in the region. A deferral is capable of obstructing justice for victims of international crimes committed in Darfur, and would send a message to those planning and committing crimes in Darfur that they are free to proceed without risk of being held accountable. A deferral under article 16 may have consequences beyond the situation in Darfur. It would have potentially disastrous effects on the ICC and would risk becoming a precedent in every situation being investigated by its Prosecutor. A deferral would also leave the Security Council open to permanent blackmail by the government of Sudan that might threaten a broad range of retaliatory measures, including resumption of hostilities, if the Security Council were to end the deferral and the Court were to resume consideration of the request for an arrest warrant.
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