What conditions apply to making useful policy predictions?
• There is a strong causal relationship between the policy and the thing you are interested in forecasting, • the relationship can be estimated, • the policy is likely to change substantially over the forecast horizon or you wish to predict the effect if it did change, and • you decide what the policy will be or you can predict what it will be, or you wish to develop contingency plans in case of a change. Back to top H.
