WHAT CAN WE INFER ABOUT FARM-LEVEL CROP YIELD PDFs FROM COUNTY-LEVEL PDFs?
Author InfoXu, Zhiying Abstract Accurate estimates of farm-level crop yield probability density functions (PDF’s) are crucial for studying various crop insurance programs and production under risk and uncertainty. Unfortunately, farm-level crop yield PDF’s are difficult to estimate due to the lack of sufficient farm yield data. County yield data cover much longer time periods than farm yield data, but using county yield distributions to conjecture about farm yield distributions is dangerous. The theoretical reason is that county yield is the average of correlated farm yields, for which there is no recognizable probability density function (PDF). This paper investigates the relationship between farm and county yield distributions using both statistical theory and the Monte-Carlo simulation method. Results show that under suitable farm yield correlation and density structures, the shape of yield distribution at the farm level is similar to that at the county level. A method is then devel
) No 11078, Graduate Research Masters Degree Plan B Papers from Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Abstract: Accurate estimates of farm-level crop yield probability density functions (PDF’s) are crucial for studying various crop insurance programs and production under risk and uncertainty. Unfortunately, farm-level crop yield PDF’s are difficult to estimate due to the lack of sufficient farm yield data. County yield data cover much longer time periods than farm yield data, but using county yield distributions to conjecture about farm yield distributions is dangerous. The theoretical reason is that county yield is the average of correlated farm yields, for which there is no recognizable probability density function (PDF). This paper investigates the relationship between farm and county yield distributions using both statistical theory and the Monte-Carlo simulation method. Results show that under suitable farm yield correlation and densit
