What assumptions about carbon emissions were used in the Wisconsin calculations?
The projections for Wisconsin were based on something called the A1B emissions scenario, developed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC constructed a range of scenarios, each with different levels of economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. The A1B had been considered a moderate scenario; however, actual emissions are exceeding those embedded in the A1B, making it an increasingly conservative assumption. The Wisconsin scientists ran projections on three scenarios — A2, A1B and B1 — but the A1B is believed to be closest to reality at this time.
