What are the pressures on Turkeys government?
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, finds himself under pressure from all sides. America, a close and vital ally, wants him to stay out of northern Iraq. Thanks to the PKK’s recent attacks, Turkish public opinion wants strong action. Anti-American feeling has risen sharply in Turkey, making the situation still more difficult. A powerful Congressional committee has inflamed feelings still further by declaring Turkey’s mass killing of Armenians during the Ottoman era a “genocide”. What might Turkey do? Mr Erdogan could order a large-scale invasion of northern Iraq and occupy a buffer zone to shield against PKK incursions. Although the most effective option, this would also risk chaos in Iraq and American counter-measures. Turkey’s army could carry out raids on guerrilla bases, possibly accompanied by air strikes. The danger is that limited strikes would be ineffective but they would minimise international protest.
