What are the odds Plan Colombia may be declared a failure and the funds destined to Colombia cut?
Congress is unlikely to reduce aid to Colombia, but the Democrats may use their new majority to alter the composition of the aid package, with more emphasis on social and economic aid than in previous years. The price and purity estimates (first from RAND, now from IDA) have added to doubts about fumigation, but policymakers are wary of being labeled soft on drugs and are not likely to cut off finding for fumigation at this point. According to Colombian newspaper El Tiempo the coca plantations for 2006 are expected to have decreased by 10%. How would you explain this decrease considering the retail price in the US has fell while its purity increased? The price and purity trends through October 2006 (the latest available) are related to cocaine produced in prior months, so it would be possible for U.S. retail prices to have fallen at the same time that coca cultivation declined. But the figures for coca cultivation are questionable, and probably underestimate the true extent of coca gro
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- What are the odds Plan Colombia may be declared a failure and the funds destined to Colombia cut?
