What are the lessons from 2G/GSM diffusion for 3G mobile telecom diffusion in China?
This paper is based on an ongoing doctoral research project focussing on the diffusion of digital mobile telecom technology among users, operators and suppliers in China, over the past decade or so, applying and testing Everett Rogers (2003) diffusion of innovations model with respect to successive generations of technology, i.e., 2G 2nd generation, 2.5G and the brand new 3G. The macro-innovation environment is analysed first, including key issues affecting the rate of mobile telecom diffusion, such as specific country characteristics, digital and analogue mobile phone industry characteristics, and regulatory policies. Then a double case study is presented exploring the key dimensions of mobile telecom diffusion in Shanghai and Chongqing, two areas with distinct geographic and economic profiles. The former is a showcase, high growth area in South-East China, while the latter is a developing one in West China. Four sets of variables are used to analyse mobile diffusion: per capital GDP,
