What are the latest prospects for Latin American growth in 2009?
Cañonero: In the largest countries, we expect average growth around 1.8 percent, which refers to a weighted average. That compares to 4.3 percent in 2008. It’s a sharp slowdown when compared to the 2006 and 2008 averages—in excess of 300 basis points. We expect growth to be around half a point in Mexico. In the case of Brazil, it will probably be below 3 percent, maybe 2.7 percent—down from the 5.2 percent estimated for 2008. Strong growth in Peru will continue; we forecast it around 5.8 percent. But this is compared with a 9.2 percent increase estimated for 2008. It’s a sharp slowdown. In commodity-sensitive countries like Venezuela and Ecuador we will see zero to negative growth. This is also possible in the case of Argentina. In Colombia we expect growth to be around 2 percent—half of what was estimated for 2008. AS/COA: What is your opinion and how are emerging markets reacting to the economic team being put together by the incoming Obama administration? Cañonero: The reaction has
