What are the characteristics of an effective clinical prediction rule?
An effective clinical prediction rule is simple, sensible, reliable and powerful. A simple rule will allow rapid, bedside estimation of the probability of abuse. A sensible and reliable rule will incorporate predictor clinical variables that are readily available and consistently interpreted. A powerful rule will demonstrate high sensitivity and high specificity for abuse within narrow confidence limits. Because we intend our future clinical prediction rule to be used as a screening tool, we will seek to derive and to validate a rule with maximal sensitivity.
