What are the chances of hitting a major gusher like the ones I remember seeing in movies as a kid?
While it’s still possible, realistically, it’s not nearly as likely as in the past. That kind of geyser-like oil strike was largely the result of a combination of immense pressure and huge quantities of oil extant at that time. In many areas of the country, (especially Texas and Oklahoma) a great deal of belowground pressure has been released by extensive drilling over the past century or so. There’s still plenty of oil in North America, but more often than not, when you find it, that oil needs to be coaxed out by acid fracture treatments and other methods which direct the oil which is seeping out of the limestone or sandstone toward your well. This requires more work and money, but the long-term rewards can still be significant. At today’s prices, even a modest 50-barrel-a-day producer can return a manifold return over a period of years.