What are Social Securitys three scenarios for the future?
The Trustees use three scenarios to project Social Security’s financial future. The middle scenario, called the “intermediate projection,” is the most likely to occur. That is the reason that it is usually cited. The Trustees also include both a more optimistic projection and a more pessimistic projection. Although all three are listed, it is not correct to assume that there is an equal chance that each might occur. In fact, there is a less than 5 percent chance that either of the other two scenarios will occur. What’s missing from the report? • A measure of workers’ rate of return. The Trustees Report does not include any measure of what workers actually receive for their payroll taxes. The best way to accomplish this would be to include a chart that plots implicit rates of return by birth year. Similar to a chart found in the Government Accountability Office’s August 1999 report on Social Security’s rate of return, this chart would illustrate to Americans that the rate of return from
