What are other labor market readings implying about employment trends?
The overwhelming majority of the data support the notion of an undercount in the payroll employment data. Moreover, there is evidence pointing to stronger job growth readings in the months ahead. A reasonably new and virtually un-followed jobs report that is also produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the JOLTS report short for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This report tracks job hires and separations at 16,000 nonfarm business establishments throughout the country. Interestingly, the JOLTS report shows a significant improvement in net hiring; it turned positive in the spring of 2003 and has gained upside momentum in recent months. In the final quarter of 2003 the JOLTS report revealed a net new hiring reading that would equate to a 200,000+ per month rise in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment claims readings also suggest that the payroll data has failed to capture the true employment trend. Initial unemployment claims have hovered around the 350,00
