Weather forecasts aren’t always accurate a few days ahead, so how can you possibly predict what climate over the next 100 years?
Although they are made by the same sort of mathematical model, weather forecasts and climate predictions are really quite different. A weather forecast tells us what the weather (for example, temperature or rainfall) is going to be at a certain place and time over the next few days. A climate prediction tells us about changes in the average climate, its variability and extremes. So, it might say that Somerset, in 40–60 years time, will have, on average 25% more rain in winter with three times the current number of heavy rainfall events. It not forecast that it will be raining in Somerset on the morning of 15 October 2044.
Related Questions
- We do a poor job predicting the weather eight days ahead, so how can we expect computer models to predict future climate? Aren’t they really simplistic?
- Weather forecasts aren accurate for more than a few days ahead, so how can we possibly predict climate over the next 100 years?
- Weather forecasts aren’t always accurate a few days ahead, so how can you possibly predict what climate over the next 100 years?
